Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 356-365.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.212

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Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff in Lancang and Nujiang River Basins

Liu Suxia1, 2, Ding Wenhao1, 2, Mo Xingguo1, 2, Wang Sheng1, 2, Liu Changming1, Luo Xian3, He Daming3, Sagar Ratna Bajracharya4, Arun Bhakta Shrestha4, Nand Kishor Agrawal4   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 College of Resources and Environment/Sino-Danish Centre, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3 University of Yunnan, Kunming 650091, China;
    4 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu 100023, Nepal
  • Received:2016-10-17 Revised:2017-02-06 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30


The VIP eco-hydrological model and HIMS model were used to simulate hydrological processes from 1957 to 2012. Based on the ensemble projections of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff in the two basins were predicted. The results show that in the past 50 years air temperatures in the two basins were continually increasing and the rates over the upstream plateau were higher than the lower downstream. The tendency of annual precipitation was not significant, while the precipitation in spring season was increasing. The total water resources were around 65 billion to 85 billion m3 and no noticeable tendency was detected. Spatially, the water resources kept the pattern of “higher in south and lower in north”. The variability of water resources in Lancang River was more significant than that of Nujiang River. In the future climate scenarios, it will become warmer and wetter, the runoff will increase with lower spatial variability. Being with high seasonal variability, there will still be challenges in the water resources security over the whole basins.

Key words: runoff, temperature, precipitation, VIP eco-hydrological model, HIMS model

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