Climate Change Research


Study of evaluation method on the climate of extreme high temperatures based on dynamic return periods

TU Kai, YAN Zhong-Wei, FAN Li-Jun, LI Zhen   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperature East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China Academy of Sciences

  • Received:2022-01-17 Revised:2022-04-18 Accepted:2022-09-07 Online:2022-09-07 Published:2022-09-07
  • Contact: TU Kai


For 754 homogenized daily maximum temperature series across rapid warming China during past 40 years, dynamic return periods and return levels were investigated based on various nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, and new method of evaluation for high temperature extremes was proposed. By this method, the extremality of extreme climate events can be better explained. This method also enhances the comparability between climate extremes, thus more historical information can be well preserved. Transformed applications of dynamic return periods between stationary and nonstationary models can provide more accurate and reliable assessment about current state of climate extremes in climate change studies. Finally, some long-existing disagreements and mistakes in understanding “once-in-N-year” extreme events (i.e. as a value or a probability) between academic circles and public opinions are clarified effectively via the new method.

Key words: Extreme temperature, Dynamic return periods, Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), nonstationary models

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