An assessment on extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River basin as simulated by CWRF regional climate model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.132

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the station observation data from 1980 to 2016, the CWRF model’s ability to simulate area rainfall and extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River basin was evaluated. The results showed that the CWRF model well reproduced the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and the monthly/seasonal variation characteristics of area rainfall in different regions from 1980 to 2016, and the CWRF model performance was better in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. CWRF model had a systematic overestimation on area rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and the simulation capability for area rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was higher than that in the upper reaches and the Jinsha River. This may be due to the inadequate representation of observation area rainfall caused by the complex topography and the scarcity of stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin and the Jinsha River area, as well as the lack in simulation capabilities of the CWRF model. CWRF model also presented certain capabilities to simulate extreme precipitation events, which could well reflect the wetting trend of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the weakening trend of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the increasing trend in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River could be reflected. However, the numerical simulation capability for extreme daily precipitation and precipitation in complex terrain were insufficient.

Key words: CWRF, Yangtze River basin, Area rainfall, Extreme precipitation

SUN Chen, WANG Fang, ZHOU Yue-Hua, LI Lan. An assessment on extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River basin as simulated by CWRF regional climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(1): 44-57.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1 Division of Yangtze River basin and distribution of meteorological stations

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation in the period of 1980-2016

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of bias of annual mean precipitation between model and observation in 1980-2016. (The shaded regions indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 4 Geographic distributions of seasonal average precipitation in 1980-2016

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of bias of annual total precipitation between model and observation in 1980-2016. (The shaded regions indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 6 Geographic distributions of deviation percentage between CWRF (a), ERI (b) and OBS extreme precipitation

Fig. 7 Taylor diagram of annual and seasonal area rainfall time series in different basins during 1980-2016

Fig. 8 Deviation percentage of area rainfall in different basins during 1980-2016

Fig. 9 Monthly area rainfall anomaly in different basins during 1980-2016

Table 1 Extreme precipitation climate index

Fig. 10 Geographic distributions of deviation percentage between CWRF and OBS extreme precipitation climate index. (The shaded regions indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 90% confidence level)

Fig. 11 Same as Fig. 10 except for the correlation coefficient

Fig. 12 Linear trend of extreme precipitation indexes. (The shaded regions indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 90% confidence level)

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