Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5): 514-524.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.221

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of gross primary productivity change of global terrestrial ecosystem in the 21st century based on optimal ensemble averaging of CMIP6 models

HUANG Lu-Feng1, ZHU Zai-Chun1, HUANG Meng-Tian2(), ZHAO Qian1, MA Wei-Rui1, ZENG Hui1   

  1. 1 School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School of Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
    2 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2020-09-21 Revised:2020-12-10 Online:2021-09-30 Published:2021-09-28
  • Contact: HUANG Meng-Tian


Using data set of 18 Earth system models in CMIP6, the global terrestrial annual gross primary productivity (GPP) changes in the 21st century were projected, and its driving factors were analyzed under four future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) based on traditional Multi-Model Ensemble Mean (MME) and Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) methods. The results show that under the four scenarios, the global terrestrial GPP predicted by the REA method in the future period (2068-2100) would increase by (14.85±3.32), (28.43±4.97), (37.66±7.61), and (45.89±9.21) Pg C compared with that in historical period (1982-2014), where the increment magnitude and uncertainty are significantly lower than those based on MME method. Attribution analysis shows that under the four scenarios, atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing contributes the most to the changes of GPP, whose proportion calculated based on REA method are 140%, 137%, 115% and 75%. With the exception of SSP5-8.5 (24%), warming would lead to global GPP decreasing under other scenarios (-42%, -37%, -16%), which partially offsets the positive contribution of CO2 fertilization effects. There are different latitudinal patterns of the effect of temperature: warming in low latitudes contributes negatively to GPP changes, while it has positive contribution in middle and high latitudes. Precipitation and radiation changes contribute relatively little to GPP changes.

Key words: Gross primary productivity (GPP), Earth system models, CMIP6, Reliability ensemble averaging (REA)

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