Response of water level fluctuation to climate warming and wetting scenarios and its mechanism on Qinghai Lake

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.243

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of water level data of Qinghai Lake, meteorological observational data including temperature, precipitation and evaporation in its basin and climate indexes such as plateau monsoon and westerly circulation from 1961 to 2015, the characteristics of water level fluctuation of Qinghai Lake were analyzed, influence mechanism of plateau monsoon, westerly circulation, vegetation cover, runoff and permafrost degradation on water level fluctuation of lake level were revealed, the quantitative evaluation model on water level changes of Qinghai Lake were established. The water level in Qinghai Lake showed a mutation from descending to rising in 2004 and a continuous rising for 11 years after 2005. The fluctuation of water level had 8 years and 21 years significant periods. Plateau monsoon enhancement and westerly circulation weakening, climate warming and wetting, vegetation restoration, permafrost degradation and runoff increasing, all brought about water level rising continuously after 2005. Quantitative evaluation model based on water balance principle can reflect the influential effect on water level fluctuation caused by precipitation, runoff and evaporation in the previous and current year objectively.

Key words: Qinghai Lake, Climate change, Plateau monsoon, Westerly circulation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Glacier, Permafrost

LI Lin, SHEN Hong-Yan, LIU Cai-Hong, XIAO Rui-Xiang. Response of water level fluctuation to climate warming and wetting scenarios and its mechanism on Qinghai Lake[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 600-608.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Geographical distribution of Qinghai Lake basin

Fig. 2 Annual variation (a), M-K mutation test (b), wavelet variance diagram (c), and wavelet coefficient curve (d) for Qinghai Lake water level during 1961-2015

Fig. 3 Anomaly variation of plateau summer monsoon index (IPM) (a) and its M-K mutation test curve (b) during 1979-2015

Fig. 4 Anomaly variation of regional summer west index (IRW) during 1979-2015

Fig. 5 Variations of annual mean temperature anomaly (a), anomaly percentage of annual precipitation (b), M-K mutation test of annual precipitation in Qinghai Lake basin (c) during 1961-2015

Fig. 6 Anomaly variation of annual mean NDVI in Qinghai Lake basin during 2000-2015

Fig. 7 Anomaly variation of 0 cm surface temperature during 1961-2015 in Qinghai Lake basin

Fig. 8 Anomaly variation of basin annual mean flow during 1961-2015

Fig. 9 The contrast of the standard value about observation and evaluation on water level fluctuation in Qinghai Lake during 1962-2015

References 22

[1]	施雅风. 气候变化对西北华北水资源的影响[M]. 济南: 山东科学出版社, 1995: 127-141.
	Shi Y F. The impact of climate change on water resource in Northwest China [M]. Ji’nan: Shangdong Scientific Publish Press, 1995: 127-141(in Chinese)
[2]	曲耀光. 青海湖水量平衡及水位变化预测[J]. 湖泊科学, 1994,6(4):298-307.
	Qu Y G. Water balance and forecasting of water level change in Qinghai Lake[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 1994,6(4):298-307 (in Chinese)
[3]	李林, 朱西德, 王振宇, 等. 近42年来青海湖水位变化的影响因子及其趋势预测[J]. 中国沙漠, 2005,25(5):689-696.
	Li L, Zhu X D, Wang Z Y, et al. The impacting factor and its tendency forecasting of the variation of water level in Qinghai Lake in recent 42 years[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2005,25(5):689-696 (in Chinese)
[4]	于革, 赖格英, 薛滨, 等. 中国西部湖泊水量对未来气候变化的响应: 蒙特卡罗概率法在气候模拟输出的应用[J]. 湖泊科学, 2004,16(3):193-202.
	Yu G, Lai G Y, Xue B, et al. Preliminary study on the responses of lake water from the western China to climate change in the future: Monte Carlo analysis applied in GCM simulations and lake water changes[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2004,16(3):193-202 (in Chinese)
[5]	周陆生, 汪青春. 青海湖水位年际变化规律的分析和预测[J]. 高原气象, 1996,15(4):476-484.
	Zhou L S, Wang Q C. The analysis and prognosticate of change over Qinghai Lake[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1996,15(4):476-484 (in Chinese)
[6]	金章东, 张飞, 王红丽, 等. 2005年以来青海湖水位持续回升的原因分析[J]. 地球环境学报, 2013,4(3):1355-1362.
	Jin Z D, Zhang F, Wang H L, et al. The reasons of rising water level in lake Qinghai since 2005[J]. Journal of Earth Environment, 2013,4(3):1355-1362 (in Chinese)
[7]	袁云, 李栋梁, 安迪. 青海湖水位变化对青藏高原气候变化的响应[J]. 高原气象, 2012,31(1):57-64.
	Yuan Y, Li D L, An D. Response of water level in Qinghai Lake to climate change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2012,31(1):57-64 (in Chinese)
[8]	李林, 时兴合, 申红艳, 等. 1960—2009年青海湖水位波动的气候成因探讨及其未来趋势预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011,26(9):1566-1574. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.09.012 URL
	Li L, Shi X H, Shen H Y, et al. Cause of fluctuation about water level in Qinghai Lake from 1960 to 2009 and forecasting about its future trend[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011,26(9):1566-1574 (in Chinese)
[9]	青海省水利志编委会办公室. 青海河流[M]. 西宁: 青海人民出版社, 1995: 125-139.
	The Editorial Committee of the Record of Water Conservancy in Qinghai. River of Qinghai [M]. Xi’ning: Qinghai People Press, 1995: 125-139(in Chinese)
[10]	李春晖, 郑小康, 杨志峰, 等. 黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009,45(1):80-85.
	Li C H, Zheng X K, Yang Z F, et al. Treads of annual natural runoff in the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Natural Science, 2009,45(1):80-85 (in Chinese)
[11]	李江风, 袁玉江, 由希尧, 等. 树木年轮水文学研究与应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000: 115-116.
	Li J F, Yuan Y J, You X R, et al. Research and application of tree-ring hydrology [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2000: 115-116(in Chinese)
[12]	孙照渤. 短期气候预测基础[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2010: 112-116.
	Sun Z B. Elements of short period climate predication [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2010: 112-116(in Chinese)
[13]	王可丽, 江灏, 赵红岩, 等. 西风带与季风对中国西北地区的水汽输送[J]. 水科学进展, 2005,16(3):432-438.
	Wang K L, Jiang H, Zhao H Y, et al. Atmospheric water vapor transport from westerly and monsoon over the Northwest China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005,16(3):432-438 (in Chinese)
[14]	李万莉, 王可丽, 傅慎明, 等. 区域西风指数对西北地区水汽输送及收支的指示性[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008,30(1):28-34.
	Li W L, Wang K L, Fu S M, et al. The interrelationship between regional westerly index and the water vapor budget in Northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008,30(1):28-34 (in Chinese)
[15]	田俊, 马振峰, 范广洲. 高原季风对500 hPa中纬度西风带活动的影响[J]. 成都信息工程学院学报, 2010,25(1):61-68.
	Tian J, Ma Z F, Fan G Z. The relationships between plateau monsoon and 500 hPa westerly activities in mid-latitude[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 2010,25(1):61-68 (in Chinese)
[16]	李林, 陈晓光, 王振宇, 等. 青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2010,6(3):181-186.
	Li L, Chen X G, Wang Z Y, et al. Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Change Research, 2010,6(3):181-186 (in Chinese)
[17]	《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2015: 38-41.
	The Editorial Committee of the Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change. The third national assessment report on climate change [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2015: 38-41(in Chinese)
[18]	沈永平, 王国亚. IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013,35(5):1068-1076. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0120 URL
	Shen Y P, Wang G Y. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013,35(5):1068-1076 (in Chinese)
[19]	施雅风. 中国冰川与环境: 现在、过去和未来[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000: 190-198.
	Shi Y F. China glacier and environment: now, the past and the future [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2000: 190-198(in Chinese)
[20]	周幼吾, 郭东信, 邱国庆, 等. 中国冻土[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000: 309-325.
	Zhou Y W, Guo D X, Qiu G Q, et al. China permafrost [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2000: 309-325(in Chinese)
[21]	《青海湖流域生态环境保护与修复》编辑委员会. 青海湖流域生态环境保护与修复[M]. 西宁: 青海人民出版社, 2008: 62-75.
	The Editorial Committee of Ecological Protection and Restoration of the Qinghai Lake basin. Ecological protection and restoration of the Qinghai Lake basin [M]. Xi’ning: Qinhai People Press, 2008: 62-75(in Chinese)
[22]	裴布祥. 蒸发和蒸散的测定与计算[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1989: 87-91.
	Pei B X. Calculation and measurement of evaporation and evapotranspiration [M]. Beijing: China Meteorology Press, 1989: 87-91(in Chinese)