Study on low-carbon development path of urban transportation sector based on LEAP model—take Guangzhou as an example

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking the city of Guangzhou as a case study, a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP)-Guangzhou Transportation model was developed to simulate future energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends during 2017-2050 under three scenarios: policy scenario (PS), low-carbon scenario (LCS), and green and low-carbon scenario (GLCS). Then the emission reduction potentials, the development direction and path of transportation sector were discussed. Results show that CO₂ emission of transportation sector in Guangzhou will peak around 2035 under PS scenario, but with more stringent policies in the LCS and GLCS scenarios, the peak timing is expected to advance to 2025 and 2023, respectively. In order to promote the low-carbon development of urban transportation, it is necessary to develop railway and waterway transportation to form an integrated transportation system; fully implement the public transportation priority strategy to effectively control the number and the frequency of private cars; and promote the cleanliness of energy structure and the energy efficiency.

Key words: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model, Low-carbon transportation, Scenario analysis, Development path, Guangzhou

Ying HUANG,Hong-Xu GUO,Cui-Ping LIAO,Dai-Qing ZHAO. Study on low-carbon development path of urban transportation sector based on LEAP model—take Guangzhou as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 670-683.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig. 1 Energy consumption (a) and CO2 emission (b) status of transportation sector in Guangzhou

Fig. 2 Changes in CO2 emission of Guangzhou’s transportation sector

Fig. 3 Structure of LEAP-Guangzhou transportation model

Table 1 Scenarios setting

Table 2 Guangzhou’s structure of future city passenger traffic volume by scenarios %

Table 3 Guangzhou’s future intercity passenger turnover structure by scenarios %

Table 4 Guangzhou’s future freight turnover structure by scenarios %

Fig. 4 The energy structure of Guangzhou’s transportation sector

Fig. 5 The trends of energy consumption demand (a) and CO2 emission (b) in Guangzhou’s transportation sector by 2050

Fig. 6 CO2 emission reduction potential of Guangzhou’s transportation sector under different scenarios

Table 5 Summary of emission reduction potentials in Guangzhou’s transportation sector

Fig. 7 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s freight traffic

Fig. 8 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s intercity passenger traffic

Fig. 9 CO2 emission paths of Guangzhou’s city passenger traffic

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