Probability projection and uncertainties of the temperature extreme indices change over China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.202

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature from 23 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 scenario, five temperature extreme indices including average maximum temperature (TXAV), average minimum temperature (TNAV), heat wave duration index (HWDI), frost days (FD) and warm nights (TNF90) were calculated, and the probability projection of extreme temperature indices were analyzed after evaluating the performance of models in simulating the extreme indices. The results show that there has a high probability (more than 66% chance) of increasing by 2.0℃for TNAV and TXAV during mid of the 21st century. The increasing maximum regions are located over south of Tibetan Plateau region. TNF90 increases by 15% across the whole region, with the largest values over 20% in southwestern China and south coastal region. FD is projected to decrease with the largest negative magnitude over 20 d regions over the Tibetan Plateau. HWDI increase by 10 d occurs across the whole China region, with maximum value by 30 d located over southern Tibetan Plateau. The uncertainties results show that temperature indices change have large reliabilities except HWDI. For the end of the 21st century, the increase magnitude of indices is more remarkable than the former period, and both TNAV and TXAV have very high probabilities (larger than 90%) by 2.0℃. Increasing magnitudes of TNF90 over southwestern China and south coastal regions are larger than 25% while TNF90 in most regions decreases by 15%. FD decreases by 20 d in most regions and by 40 d around the Tibetan Plateau. HWDI increases by 20 d throughout the whole region, maxima increase region is located over southeastern of TP. The credibility is the same as that during the mid-21st century except FD.

Key words: CMIP5, Extreme temperature, Probability projection, Uncertainties

Xiao-Fei JIANG,Wei LI,Qing-Long YOU. Probability projection and uncertainties of the temperature extreme indices change over China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(3): 228-236.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Model identification, modeling center/nation, and atmospheric resolution of 23 CMIP5 global climate models, as well as the weights of each model according to their performance

Table 2 The definition of five extreme temperature indices used in this paper

Fig. 1 Probability for a change relative to 1986-2005 in TNAV (left) and TXAV (right) exceeding a given threshold on the x axis in the mid and end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 scenario

Fig. 2 Geographic distribution of TNAV change relative to baseline period (1986-2005) with probability larger than 66% for the mid (a) and end (b) of the 21st century

Fig. 3 Geographic distribution of TXAV change with probability larger than 66% for the mid (a) and end (b) of the 21st century

Fig. 4 Geographic distribution of TNF90 change with probability larger than 66% for the mid (a) and end (b) of the 21st century

Fig. 5 Geographic distribution of FD change with probability larger than 66% for the mid (a) and end (b) of the 21st century

Fig. 6 Geographic distribution of HWDI change with probability larger than 66% for the mid (a) and end (b) of the 21st century

Fig. 7 The spatial pattern of SNR for extreme temperature indices change for the mid of the 21st century

Fig. 8 The spatial pattern of SNR for extreme temperature indices change for the end of the 21st century

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