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Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 652-663.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.239
• Special Section on the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC: WGI • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHOU Tian-Jun1,2(), CHEN Zi-Ming2,1, CHEN Xiao-Long1, ZUO Meng1, JIANG Jie1, HU Shuai1
Received:
2021-10-11
Revised:
2021-11-02
Online:
2021-11-30
Published:
2021-11-08
ZHOU Tian-Jun, CHEN Zi-Ming, CHEN Xiao-Long, ZUO Meng, JIANG Jie, HU Shuai. Interpreting IPCC AR6: future global climate based on projection under scenarios and on near-term information[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(6): 652-663.
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URL: http://www.climatechange.cn/EN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.239
Fig. 1 Selected indicators of global climate change from CMIP6 historical and scenario simulations. (a) Global surface air temperature changes, (b) global land precipitation changes, (c) September Arctic sea-ice area, (d) global mean sea-level change (GMSL). (Source: IPCC AR6 Chapter 4 Fig. 4.2)
Fig. 2 Mid- and long-term change of annual mean surface temperature (Displayed are projected spatial patterns of multi-model mean change in annual mean near-surface air temperature in 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.The number of models used is indicated in the top right of the maps. No overlay indicates regions where the change is robust and significant. Hatching indicates regions with no change or no robust significant change. Cross-hatching indicates areas of conflicting signals where at least 66% of the models show change greater than the internal-variability threshold but fewer than 80% of all models agree on the sign of change. Source: IPCC AR6 Chapter 4 Fig. 4.19. For the definition of robustness and significant change, please see section 4.2.6 in the Chapter 4 of IPCC AR6)
Fig. 3 Long-term change of seasonal mean precipitation during 2081-2100 (Displayed are projected spatial patterns of multi-model mean change in winter and summer mean precipitation in 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014, for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The number of models used is indicated in the top right of the maps. No map overlay indicates regions where the change is robust and significant. Hatching indicates regions with no change or no robust significant change. Cross-hatching indicates areas of conflicting signals where at least 66% of the models show change greater than the internal-variability threshold but fewer than 80% of all models agree on the sign of change. Source: IPCC AR6 Chapter 4 Fig. 4.24. For the definition of robustness and significant change, please see section 4.2.6 in the Chapter 4 of IPCC AR6)
Fig. 4 Multiple lines of evidence for GSAT changes for the long-term period 2081-2100, for all five priority scenarios, relative to the average over 1995-2014. (a) Future GSAT warming and uncertainty in the unconstrained projection, (b) future GSAT warming and uncertainty in the constrained projection, (c) the average of three constrained projection (grey) and the range estimated from emulator (green), (d) the average GSAT series of the constrained CMIP6 ranges and the emulator ranges. (The y-axes on the right-hand side are shifted upward by 0.85°C, the central estimate of the observed warming for 1995-2014, relative to 1850-1900. Source:IPCC AR6 Chapter 4 Fig. 4.11)
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