Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 151-161.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.055

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluation and projections of monthly temperature extremes over the Belt and Road region based on PDF-adjusted method

QI Ya-Jie1,2,3(), YAN Zhong-Wei2,4, QIAN Cheng2,4()   

  1. 1 Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
    2 CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, China
    3 Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    4 University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-03-20 Revised:2020-06-12 Online:2021-03-30 Published:2021-04-02
  • Contact: QIAN Cheng;


The Belt and Road region has widespread population and complex climate types, of which the risks of climate change are yet to be recognized. In this study, we investigated the simulations of the annual extreme monthly temperatures by 31 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for 10 sub-regions. The performances of the models for the historical period (1986-2005) were assessed by comparing the simulated and observed probability density functions (PDFs) of the warm/cold month temperatures. A “better-model ensemble” was applied to project extreme monthly temperatures in the middle (2041-2060) and the end (2081-2100) of the 21st century. The models tend to perform relatively better for the cold month than for the warm month temperatures over the historical period. Compared to all-model ensemble/the median, the “better-model ensemble” is more suitable for evaluation of extreme monthly temperatures. As to the changes in extreme warm/cold month temperatures projected under the RCP4.5 scenarios, the inter-model uncertainty is larger over high latitudes than over low latitudes via the “better-model ensemble”. The changes of monthly warm extremes show the largest increase in the Mediterranean Basin and the smallest in Southeast Asia in both the middle of the end of the century. The changes of monthly cold extremes show the largest warming in Northern Europe and the smallest warming in Southeast Asia in both the middle and the end of the century.

Key words: The Belt and Road, Monthly extreme temperatures, Multi-model ensemble, Climate projection

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