The rainstorm and flooding disaster risk in Beijing under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.073

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on five climate model simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the FloodArea model, this paper analyzes the extreme precipitation and inundation risks of Beijing with global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ under the scenario of RCP8.5. The extreme precipitation in Beijing shows a decreasing distribution trend from southwest to northeast. When the temperature rises to 2.0℃, the risk of extreme precipitation and inundation increases more obviously than when the temperature rises to 1.5℃. The districts with the most obvious increase in extreme precipitation in suburbs are Fangshan and Mentougou, and Haidian, Shijingshan and Fengtai are the districts with the most obvious increase in extreme precipitation in urban areas. Haidian district has the largest area of flood risk, followed by Fengtai and Shijingshan district. The suburbs of Yanqing and Huairou are the areas with the largest flood area.

Key words: Rainstorm and flood, Flooding simulation, Disaster risk, FloodArea model, Beijing

Jun-Zhi ZHANG,Feng YUAN,Ji WANG,He-Min SUN,Hong LIU,Wen-Lin MA. The rainstorm and flooding disaster risk in Beijing under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(1): 78-87.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1 Information of 5 climate models

Table 2 The criteria for classification of waterlogging disasters

Fig. 1 The actual precipitation and simulated submerged depth from 10:00 BT on 20 July to 01:00 BT on 21 July 2012 in urban area in Beijing

Table 3 The comparison between actual submerged depth and simulated submerged depth

Fig. 2 The extreme precipitation in Beijing during the baseline period (a) and two future periods with global warming of 1.5℃ (b) and 2.0℃ (c)

Fig. 3 The submerged depth and range in the city and urban area in Beijing during the baseline period and two future periods with global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ (a) baseline period, (b) global warming of 1.5℃, (c) global warming of 2.0℃

Table 4 The submerged area and proportion during 2017-2036, 2030-2049 and the baseline period

Fig. 4 The submerged area of the city in Beijing during the baseline period and two future periods with global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

Fig. 5 The submerged area of the suburbs in Beijing during the baseline period and two future periods

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