Analysis of climate characteristics of tropical cyclone activities simulated by the NUIST Earth system model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.116

Abstract

Abstract:

By using the NUIST Earth system model v1 (NESM v1) with a constant external forcing, 40-year global tropical cyclone activities were simulated, and the simulation data were compared with the observations (1977-2016). The results show that NESM v1 can simulate vortex structure similar to tropical cyclones in the area where tropical cyclones are active, The spatial distribution and impact range of simulated tropical cyclones are basically consistent with the observations, but the numbers of tropical cyclones in various areas are different from the observations. In addition to North Indian Ocean, the numbers of tropical cyclones in different seasons are similar to the observations. The model has the best simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it can simulate the formation area and prevailing path of tropical cyclones. The simulation results in the North Indian Ocean are poor. NESM model simulates relative vorticity different from observation, so it cannot simulate the bimodal characteristic in North Indian.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Activity characteristic, NUIST Earth system model (NESM), Large-scale environmental field

Qi-Meng WU,Li-Guang WU,Jian CAO. Analysis of climate characteristics of tropical cyclone activities simulated by the NUIST Earth system model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(2): 107-118.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1 Simulated tropical cyclone (TC) structure (a) 850 hPa wind field and sea level pressure, (b) temperature anomaly and meridional winds

Fig. 2 Climatic mean sea surface temperature (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 3 Climate average 850 hPa wind field (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 4 Climate average 850 hPa relative vorticity (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 5 Climate average 200 hPa wind field (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 6 Climate average vertical shear (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 7 Global distribution of TC tracks and the annual TC numbers in each ocean (a) simulation, (b) observation

Table 1 Annual mean TC numbers in each basin (observation: 1977-2016, simulation: 40 years )

项目	全球	NIO	WNP	ENP	NAT	SIO	SPO
观测/(个/年)	80.6	3.7	24.8	16.5	12.8	14.6	9.5
模拟/(个/年)	76.2	10.6	23.3	8.4	5.1	13.1	13.9
绝对误差/%	-4.4	6.9	-1.5	-8.1	-7.7	-1.5	4.4
相对误差/%	-5.5	186.0	-6.1	-49.1	-60.2	-10.3	46.3

Fig. 8 Global distribution of TC genesis and the annual TC numbers in each ocean (a) simulation, (b) observation, (c) bias

Fig. 9 The monthly frequencies of TC genesis in (a) NIO, (b)WNP, (c) ENP, (d) NAT, (e) SIO, (f) SPO

Fig. 10 Simulation genesis (a) and track (c) of the TC in the western North Pacific, observation genesis (b) and track (d)

Fig. 11 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 200 hPa simulation (a, c, e) and observation (b, d, f) average wind field from July to September

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