Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (5): 513-521.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.052

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector

Jun-Ling LIU1(),Yi-He SUN2,Ke WANG2,Ji ZOU2(),Ying KONG1   

  1. 1 Low Carbon Economy and Financial Risk Analysis Research Laboratory, Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Research Center, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Shenzhen 518055, China
    2 School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2018-04-16 Revised:2018-07-04 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-09-30


The transport sector has high potential for carbon emission growth in the mid- and long- term and has great impact on China’s low carbon transition. A bottom-up energy system model PECE-LIU2017 which includes detailed transport sector module was developed in this study. Three scenarios were developed to discuss different future transport development pathways: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario and the low-carbon scenario. The low-carbon transition of the transport sector was explored by investigating the main driving factors trend and the impact. The results showed that China’s energy service demand for transport sector will continue to grow in the future. In NDC scenario, CO2 emissions in transport sector will peak at around the year of 2038 while in low-carbon scenario, CO2 emissions will be reduced dramatically from 3 billion tons in BAU to less than 600 million tons by 2050 and peak at around 2030, which will contribute 17.5% of total mitigations to the whole energy system. The total capital investment needs for transport sector during 2016-2050 will be around 15.7 trillion Yuan (RMB), accounting for 53% of national low carbon capital investment demand. By taking measures to improve fuel efficiency, promote new energy vehicles and encourage public travel, the transport sector is able to decarbonize its development pathway in a technical feasible way, and make a great contribution to realize China’s long-term low carbon development strategy.

Key words: Transport sector, Mitigation path, Bottom-up model, LEAP model, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

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