Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP) is an important region for food production, thus projection of changes in water cycle such as evaporation and runoff in the future are crucial to sustainable water resources utility and food security. Based on the integrated predictions of 23 climate models in the fourth assessment report of IPCC, annual evaporation and runoff were computed using the Schreiber-Thornthwaite method and then the spatio-temporal changes of air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and runoff were analyzed during 2001-2060 under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The temperature will increase with higher rate in winter than summer season; whereas precipitation will increase with higher rate in summer than winter season. It is revealed that annual evaporation and runoff are acceleratively increasing and result in more spatial variability. Changes of evaporation and runoff can reach 7.1%-9.4% and 8.7%-10.7%, respectively in 2041-2060 relative to 1971-2000.

Key words: projection, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, runoff, Schreiber equation, Thornthwaite method