Abstract: Based on five global climate models, one regional climate model and the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model, daily discharge from Bengbu station was estimated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2021-2050. A probability model based on Copula function was established to analyze future coincidence probability changes of urban rainstorm in Bengbu and flood in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative to the baseline period (1971-2000), the coincidence probabilities of different combinations of rainfall and flood estimated by multi-model ensembles will increase with a range of 46%-79% in the future (2021-2050), which is likely to increase the pressure on urban flood control in Bengbu.

Key words: climate change, VIC model, Copula function, rainstorm, flood, coincidence probability, projection