Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 1-7.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.001

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Assessing Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Risk of Using the Mengwa Flood Detention Area in Huaihe River Basin

Wu Zhiyong1, Liu Zhiyu2, Xiao Heng1, Yin Zhijie2, Zhang Yazhou1   

  1. 1 Institute of Water Problems, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 
    2 Water Resources Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
  • Received:2014-06-12 Revised:2014-09-21 Online:2015-01-30 Published:2015-01-30

Abstract: Based on 47 global climate models within World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model, possible risk of using the Mengwa flood detention area for flood control in Huaihe River basin under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2021-2050 was assessed in this study. The results show that, relative to 1971-2000, multiple models consistently project the mean annual temperature increase by 0.2-1.7℃. Although there is considerable uncertainty in projected precipitation, the projected changes in mean annual precipitation by more than 70% models have positive trends and range from 3.4% to 4.1%. The projected 20-year return flood at the Wangjiaba station is likely increased by 19%. More frequent floods due to future climate change may increase the times of using the Mengwa flood detention area for flood control.

Key words: climate change, Huaihe River basin, flood detention area, flood, projection

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