Abstract: Three future cement output trends in 2010-2030 were developed based on international comparisons and macroeconomic drivers, and the potential energy saving and CO² emission reduction were evaluated based on bottom-up calculation by process in China’s cement industry. The results reveal that, relative to current technology scenario, there exist energy-saving potential of 13.4%-14.6% and CO² emission reduction potential of 15.3%-16.3% in China’s cement industry, which could bring cumulative final energy savings of average 420 million tons of standard coal and 3.72 billion tons of cumulative emission reduction under the best technology scenario. On the whole, effects of energy saving and carbon reduction from fuel and clinker substitution are higher than those from energy efficiency measures. Among three kinds of CO² emission sources, process-related emission reduction accounts for about 42% of the total emission reductions, followed by fuel-related emission reduction (36%) and electricity-related reduction (22%).

Key words: energy saving potential, CO² reduction potential, China, cement industry, carbon reduction measures