Abstract:

Carbon emission reduction in the civil aviation industry is a complex issue involving economic, social, technological and environmental aspects. The implementation of pathway simulation based on a systems approach will help to optimize the sustainable plan for Chinese civil aviation industry. To quantitatively identify the carbon reduction effects and costs, a system dynamics (SD) model based on civil aviation decarbonization was developed, with full consideration of elemental and sub-system compositions, and scenarios were simulated and explored to determine the effects of the carbon reduction pathways and implementation costs of the civil aviation industry. The results showed that the single policy simulation scenarios of the industry’s implementation of energy-saving technology advancement, alternative fuel application, promotion of new power energy, carbon offset mechanism and high-speed rail substitution cannot achieve the industry’s carbon-neutral long-term development goal. The combination policy of multiple measures provided the optimal comprehensive decarbonization program for the industry’s decarbonization development. In the future, the industry should actively promote the large-scale application of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the short term, increase the research and development of hydrogen, electricity and hybrid aircraft in the medium term, actively adopt integrated transportation modes such as high-speed rail substitution, and continue to improve the energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies of the industry in the long term, as well as promote the incorporation of the civil aviation industry into the national carbon market. The results of the study can provide a reference for policy formulation for the sustainable development of the civil aviation sector, and help the industry decarbonize deeply.

Key words: Chinese civil aviation, System dynamics (SD) model, Multi-scenario modeling, Decarbonization pathways