China climate policy uncertainty index: construction, analysis and application prospects

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.034

Abstract

Abstract:

To ensure the timely achievement of the “dual carbon” goal, China’s government has accelerated the formulation and implementation of climate related policies. Since the climate policy uncertainty (CPU) has a significant impact on the social economy, an accurate measurement of CPU is of great significance. Based on keywords frequency of climate policy uncertainty from 13 newspapers in China from 2008 to 2023, text mining technique was adopted to construct the China CPU (CCPU) index, whose robustness and effectiveness were tested through time interval replacement and comparisons of domestic and international indices. The results show that China’s policies to address climate change can be divided into four stages: the initial stage, the development stage, the consolidation stage, and the deepening stage. CCPU can accurately reflect the development process of each stage. Compared with the US CPU, CCPU index can reflect not only major global climate policy events related to China, but also China’s unique climate policy changes and development characteristics. This index can provide reference and guidance to government in formulating climate policies, to businesses in adapting climate change, to financial institutions in managing climate risks, and to investors in improving investment efficiency in the future.

Key words: China, Climate policy, Uncertainty index, Text mining

CHEN Guo-Rong, WANG Su-Sa, DENG Jing, HOU Hao-Yi, YIN Shu-Qi, FENG Wei, QU Hao-Ze. China climate policy uncertainty index: construction, analysis and application prospects[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(3): 361-372.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig. 1 Influence path of climate policy uncertainty[28-29]

Fig. 2 Word cloud of the white book “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change”

Table 1 Three types of keywords in China climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) index

Fig. 3 CCPU index with four development stages

Fig. 4 Efficiency test of CCPU index

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