Climate Change Research

Special Issue: IPCC第六次评估报告WGIII解读专栏

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Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

TAN Xian-Chun1, 3, DAI Han-Cheng2, GU Bai-He1, HUANG Chen2, ZHU Kai-Wei1, MA Xiao-Tian2, YAN Hong-Shuo1, 3, LIU Xin-Yuan2, ZHU Yan-Lei2   

  1. 1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
    2 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    3 School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2022-06-23 Revised:2022-07-14 Online:2022-11-17 Published:2022-11-17

Abstract: ‘Emission Trends and Drivers’ chapter, an important basis for international climate negotiations, is one of the core contents of each assessment report. The trends and driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019 are discussed in this chapter in the sixth assessment report (AR6) which released in April 2022. Compared with the content in the fifth assessment report (AR5), in terms of historical emission trends, AR6 focuses on the changes from 2010 to 2019, highlights the importance of the 1.5℃ temperature control target, pays more attention to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change, and further emphasizes the carbon emission trend and its regional evolution trend from the perspective of production and consumption. Besides, the short-term impact of COVID-19 on global carbon emissions is explored. In terms of driving factors, besides analyzing the global and regional economic driving factors, the economic driving factors and differences in energy, industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors are also studied, which systematically reflecting the similarities and differences of driving factors at the global, regional and departmental levels. The result affirms the positive impact of existing climate policies on climate mitigation, highlights the benefits of technological change and innovation on climate mitigation, and identifies the adverse impact of carbon locking of fossil energy infrastructure. Finally, based on the full analysis of the key conclusions in AR6, some suggestions on China's low-carbon development are given.

Key words: IPCC AR6, climate mitigation, emission trends, driving factors, climate change

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