Cropland exposure to drought in Central Asia under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.275

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on statistically downscaled daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of five GCMs in CMIP5, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method were used to investigate spatial and temporal variations of drought events in Central Asia under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios. Cropland exposed to droughts in the warming world was estimated by applying the GlobeLand30 land use dataset with 30 m resolution. Both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase under the two warming scenarios compared with the reference period (1986-2005). Frequency, intensity, and areal coverage of total drought events are projected to increase under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels, among the total drought events, frequency and area of moderate droughts are projected to decrease, but those of severe and extreme severe droughts will substantially increase. Annual averaged cropland exposed to droughts was 115000 km2 in 1986-2005 in Central Asia. Cropland exposed to droughts will increase to 179000 and 286000 km2 under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming scenarios, respectively, with the most significant increase of exposure to extreme severe droughts. Under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios, the drought trend in Central Asia will continue increase, especially for the extreme droughts. The results show that droughts will seriously threaten agricultural production and food security in Central Asia, which calls for long-term mitigation and adaptation measurement for drought events.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, Drought events, Cropland exposure, Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD), Central Asia

WANG An-Qian, TAO Hui, FANG Ze-Hua. Cropland exposure to drought in Central Asia under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 695-706.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Location of Central Asia

Fig. 2 Comparison of monthly temperature (a) and precipitation (b) of observed and simulated in Central Asia during 1961-2005

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of annual mean temperature and precipitation of observed and simulated in Central Asia during 1961-2005

Fig. 4 Changes of precipitation (a1-a4) and potential evapotranspiration (b1-b4) in Central Asia in the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels and the reference period

Fig. 5 Changes of droughts with different intensities in Central Asia in the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels and the reference period

Fig. 6 Distribution of drought frequency in Central Asia for 1986-2005 (a), 1.5℃ (b), and 2.0℃ (c) warming levels

Fig. 7 Drought intensity for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels of total drought events (a), moderate droughts (b), severe droughts (c), and extreme severe droughts (d) in Central Asia. (Vertical lines denote range of GCMs)

Fig. 8 Areal coverage of droughts for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels of total drought events (a), moderate droughts (b), severe droughts (c), and extreme severe droughts (d) in Central Asia

Fig. 9 Cropland exposed to droughts for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels in Central Asia

Fig. 10 Distribution of cropland exposed to droughts in Central Asia for 1986-2005 (a), 1.5℃ (b) and 2.0℃(c) warming levels

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