Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.248

Abstract

Abstract:

Hydrogen is one of the important technology choices for the low-carbon transition of China’s energy system and the carbon neutrality goal by 2060. According to the source, hydrogen can be divided into 3 kinds: green, blue and gray hydrogen. There are big differences in the cost and carbon emission intensity among them. Based on the current status of China’s hydrogen production. A levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model was established with a learning curve. The cost trend of different hydrogen production methods was measured from 2020 to 2060. Results show that the cost of gray hydrogen is the lowest, and that of green hydrogen is the highest at present; by 2030, the cost of green hydrogen will drop to CNY 20-25/kg; after 2050, green hydrogen will become the lowest cost hydrogen (considering the cost of carbon emissions), the cost of hydrogen from PEM (proton exchange membrane) electrolysis will be lower than that of AE (alkaline) electrolysis, and the cost of hydrogen from photovoltaic power + PEM electrolysis will be reduced to CNY 12/kg. The decrease in the cost of electrolyzer and renewable electricity generation will be the main driving factors for the cost reduction of green hydrogen. Sensitivity analysis shows that operation & maintenance cost and learning rate of key technologies will significantly affect the cost reduction rate of green hydrogen.

Key words: Hydrogen, Levelized cost, Learning curve, Green hydrogen, Hydrogen from water electrolysis

WANG Yan-Zhe, OU Xun-Min, ZHOU Sheng. Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 283-293.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Parameters of different hydrogen production methods in 2020 and 2060

Table 2 Installed capacity of new energy power and electrolyzer in China GW

Fig. 1 Learning rate of different technology

Table 3 Study results of learning rate of electrolyzer %

Fig. 2 Future investment cost of different hydrogen production technologies

Fig. 3 Levelized cost of hydrogen without carbon emission cost

Fig. 4 Levelized cost of hydrogen with carbon emission cost

Fig. 5 Cost reduction approach of hydrogen from photovoltaic + PEM water electrolysis

Fig. 6 Hydrogen production cost under different operating and maintenance cost scenarios in 2050

Fig. 7 Future cost of hydrogen from water electrolysis by photovoltaic or wind power in different learning rates

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