Research on China’s carbon emissions pathway under the 1.5℃ target

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.228

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the 1.5℃ target of the Paris Agreement and China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, a comprehensive energy-economy-environment system model has been established to explore China’s additional emission reductions, sector contributions and key emission reduction measures to achieve 1.5℃emission pathway based on 2℃ emissions scenarios. The results show that the 1.5℃ scenario requires carbon emissions to be reduced to 0.6 Gt CO₂ by 2050, total primary energy consumption to peak at 6.8 Gtce in 2045, and the energy structure to be significantly optimized, with non-fossil energy accounting for 67% and coal proportion dropping to 16%. Compared with 2℃, 1.5℃ requires an additional cumulative emission reduction of 38.0 Gt CO₂, and the additional emission reduction mainly comes from the power sector. In terms of emission reduction measures, the additional emission reduction mainly comes from new low carbon energy and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technology. The emission reduction measures are different by sector. The power sector relies more on BECCS and other emission reduction technologies to achieve a relatively large negative emission, which is the key to achieve the 1.5℃ target path. The industrial sector still relies heavily on energy efficiency. The construction and transportation sectors are more dependent on the adjustment of terminal energy structure in which hydrogen energy plays a greater role.

Key words: 1.5℃ target, Carbon emission, Emission reduction pathway, Bottom-up model

WANG Ke, LIU Fang-Ming, YIN Ming-Jian, LIU Jun-Ling. Research on China’s carbon emissions pathway under the 1.5℃ target[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(1): 7-17.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Framework of PECE-LIU2020 model

Table 1 Updated data sources in the PECE-LIU2020 model

Table 2 Technologies development trends assumptions by sector for 2℃ and 1.5℃ scenarios

Fig. 2 Comparison of carbon emission trends between 1.5℃ and 2℃ scenarios

Fig. 3 Primary energy consumption and energy structure under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ scenarios

Fig. 4 The energy structure of the end use sectors in the 1.5℃ and 2℃ scenarios

Fig. 5 Emissions by sector under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ scenarios

Fig. 6 Sectoral contribution of different measures under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ scenarios (unit: 108 t)

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