Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 430-443.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.114

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Variation of southerly wind on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau under global warming: comparison among CMIP5 simulations

QI Li1(), YANG Rui-Ting2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing 210044, China
    2 Dali Airport of Yunnan Airport Group, Dali 671000, China
  • Received:2020-06-08 Revised:2020-07-07 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-08-11

Abstract:

There is a special region on the southeast side of Tibetan Plateau. Southerly wind occurs through the whole year, which is closely related with East Asian monsoon and plays an important role in the weather and climate in its downstream region. Under global warming, rapid warming Tibetan Plateau makes this southerly sensitive. In order to estimate its future change under global warming, CMIP5 simulations were analyzed and compared. The results show that, in 13 CMIP5 models, only BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-CM3 and MIROC5 models can well simulate the southerly region and its “double-peak” evolution feature in seasonal cycle. However, there are significant differences among models in the future change of the southerly. In MIROC5, the southerly will significantly enhance from June to December. But the southerly in BCC-CSM1.1 and GFDL-CM3 simulation will be significantly weakened after the autumn. Further analysis indicates that the difference of the southerly wind change is occasioned by the simulation difference of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian plain. For MIROC5 simulation, the temperature increase over Tibetan Plateau is larger than its surrounding. The induced thermal contrast will further enhance the southerly wind. Therefore, Reasonable simulation of the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding is very important for East Asian climate estimation.

Key words: The Tibetan Plateau, Change of the southerly wind, Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2℃, Global warming of 3℃

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