Estimation of total surface solar radiation at different time scales in China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.054

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the data of total surface solar radiation and sunshine hours of the 95 meteorological stations nationwide, the solar radiation calculation model was established by fitting regression with least squares method. By comparing and analyzing the accuracy of the surface solar total radiation calculation model starting from the daily value and the monthly value, the surface solar total radiation calculation model of different time scales (month scale, seasonal scale, growing season scale and annual scale) of various provinces and regions in China was determined and the distribution and variation characteristics of the empirical coefficients a and b were discussed. The results show that there is no significant difference in the accuracy of the calculation model of the surface solar total radiation among the month, the four seasons, the growing season and the annual solar radiation. The relative error for all models is less than 8.5%, but the calculation model with the daily value as the starting point is better due to the less variability of its coefficients a and b. Based on the daily value as the starting point, the empirical coefficients a and b decreases from the northwest to the south, and their amplitudes decrease from the four seasons to the growing season and then to the annual scale in different regions. According to the empirical coefficients a and b of the annual total solar radiation calculation model of each province, the country can be divided into three regions: the Xinjiang-Gansu-Inner Mongolia region, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the central-eastern region. The total surface solar radiation calculation model for three regions in each season, the four seasons and the growing season and the annual scale are determined. These models all pass the significance test (p<0.01), and the relative errors of the models are lower than 8.0% in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Xinjiang-Gansu-Inner Mongolia regions, showing higher simulation accuracy.

Key words: Total solar radiation, Calculation method, Model parameter, Distribution characteristic

LIU Yuan-Yuan, HU Qi, HE Hua-Yun, LI Rong, PAN Xue-Biao, HUANG Bin-Xiang. Estimation of total surface solar radiation at different time scales in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(2): 175-183.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig. 1 Distribution of the meteorological stations in the study area

Table 1 Statistical analysis of model coefficients and simulation results based on daily and monthly values

Fig. 2 Clustering partition results based on empirical coefficient of annual solar total radiation calculation model, and its calculation model coefficient a and b value

Table 2 Coefficients a and b of the calculation model of total surface solar radiation in different regions in four seasons and growing season from 1957 to 2017

Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of relative error between measured and simulated total solar radiation at 95 stations from 1957 to 2017

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