Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 613-620.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.047

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Assessment of carbon reduction effect of the Nationally Determined Contributions

Li-Ning WANG1,2,Lei YANG1,Wen-Ying CHEN1,Bao-Guo SHAN3,Cheng-Long ZHANG3,Shuo YIN4   

  1. 1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    2 CNPC Economics &Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China;
    3 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
    4 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China;
  • Received:2018-04-08 Revised:2018-06-07 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30
  • Contact: Wen-Ying CHEN


The gap of energy-related-CO2 emission pathways between the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and realizing the target of limiting temperature rise below 2℃ was researched based on an integrated assessment modal of climate change—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-TU). Results show that the NDCs are not enough to realize the target. Each country or party should enhance its NDC after 2030. The analyses of carbon intensity reduction, abatement costs, and carbon emission per capita of the main countries and parties demonstrate the great efforts and contributions of China in the process of global emission reduction. On the contrary, the commitments of regions like South Africa and Japan seem insufficient. To meet the commitment, the final energy consumption of China would reduce compared with the reference scenario, and the energy structure would have a further optimization.

Key words: Climate change, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Integrated assessment model, 2℃target

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