Assessment of carbon reduction effect of the Nationally Determined Contributions

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.047

Abstract

Abstract:

The gap of energy-related-CO₂ emission pathways between the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and realizing the target of limiting temperature rise below 2℃ was researched based on an integrated assessment modal of climate change—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-TU). Results show that the NDCs are not enough to realize the target. Each country or party should enhance its NDC after 2030. The analyses of carbon intensity reduction, abatement costs, and carbon emission per capita of the main countries and parties demonstrate the great efforts and contributions of China in the process of global emission reduction. On the contrary, the commitments of regions like South Africa and Japan seem insufficient. To meet the commitment, the final energy consumption of China would reduce compared with the reference scenario, and the energy structure would have a further optimization.

Key words: Climate change, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Integrated assessment model, 2℃target

Li-Ning WANG, Lei YANG, Wen-Ying CHEN, Bao-Guo SHAN, Cheng-Long ZHANG, Shuo YIN. Assessment of carbon reduction effect of the Nationally Determined Contributions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 613-620.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Energy system structure of GCAM-TU model

Fig. 2 Global CO2 emissions in different scenarios

Fig. 3 Annual carbon intensity reduction of main countries and parties in 2010-2030

Fig. 4 Abatement costs of main countries and parties in 2010-2030 (share of GDP)

Fig. 5 Carbon emission per capita of main countries and parties in 2030

Fig. 6 Primary energy consumption in Ref and NDC_high scenarios in China

Fig. 7 Final energy consumption by sector in Ref and NDC_high scenarios in China

Fig. 8 Electricity generation in Ref and NDC_high scenarios in China

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