Impacts of climate change on transboundary water resources and adaptation management framework

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.057

Abstract

Abstract:

Global climate change increases the possibility of disputes in international rivers. Avoiding such problems and effectively navigating the threats imposed by climate change will require substantial adaption measures and broader cooperation among the riparian countries in international river basins, while pursuing sustainable development. This paper reviews progress of studies in this field, and finds that the key factor of adaptive management is to establish a set of procedures for scientific assessment. Therefore, an adaptation assessment and management framework applied to impacts of climate change is developed. It includes qualitative description and analysis of the international river basins, semi-quantitative analyses of the potential impacts of future climate change and adaptive capacity across the basins, quantitative analysis of cost-benefit and assessment of adaptation options. This paper provides an effective framework tool and methodology for proposing more targeted adaption measures to combat climate change in international river basins.

Key words: Climate change, Transboundary water resources, Adaptation management, Assessment framework

Yang KUANG, Hao LI, Jun XIA, Ze-Chuan YANG. Impacts of climate change on transboundary water resources and adaptation management framework[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(1): 67-76.

Figures/Tables 1

References

[1]	何大明, 刘昌明, 冯彦, 等. 中国国际河流研究进展及展望[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(9): 1284-1294
[2]	UNEP. Transboundary river basins: status and trends (summary for policy makers) [R]. Nairobi: UNEP, 2016: 3-12
[3]	UN-Water.Transboundary waters: sharing benefits, sharing responsibilities [R]. UN-Water Thematic Paper, 2008: 1-2
[4]	贾琳. 国际河流开发的区域合作法律机制[J]. 北方法学, 2008, 2(5): 104-110
[5]	Goulden M, Conway D, Persechino A.Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2009, 54(5): 805-828
[6]	Olivia O, Aaron T, Wolf A.Institutional resilience and climate variability in international water treaties: the Jordan River Basin as “proof-of-concept”[J]. Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 2011, 56(4): 703-710
[7]	UNDP. Effect on water resources from climate change in Kazakhstan [R]. Kazakhstan Human Development Report 2008, 2008
[8]	王志坚. 国际河流法研究 [M]. 北京: 法律出版社, 2012
[9]	He D M, Chen X, Ji X, et al. International rivers and transboundary environment and resources[C]//Leng S Y. The geographical sciences during 1986-2015. Singapore: Springer, 2016: 469-480
[10]	聂宁, 张万昌, 邓财. 雅鲁藏布江流域1978—2009年气候时空变化及未来趋势研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(1): 64-71
[11]	Fan H, Hu J M, He D M.Trends in precipitation over the low latitude-highlands of Yunnan, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2013, 23(6): 1107-1122
[12]	Li Y G, He D M, Hu J M, et al. Variability of extreme precipitation over Yunnan province, China 1960-2012[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2014. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3977
[13]	Wolf A T.Criteria for equitable allocations: the heart of international water conflict[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 1999, 23(1): 3-30
[14]	Mcintyre O.Benefit-sharing and upstream/downstream cooperation for ecological protection of transboundary waters: opportunities for China as an upstream state[J]. Water International, 2015, 40(1): 48-70
[15]	朱松丽, 张海滨, 温刚, 等. 对IPCC第五次评估报告减缓气候变化国际合作评估结果的解读[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(5): 340-347
[16]	胡文俊, 黄河清. 国际河流开发与管理区域合作模式的影响因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(11): 2099-2106
[17]	居辉, 秦晓晨, 李翔翔, 等. 适应气候变化研究中的常见术语辨析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(1): 68-73
[18]	Yohe R S.Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2002, 12(1): 25-40
[19]	Pelling M, High C.Understanding adaptation: what can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity?[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(4): 308-319
[20]	Goklany I M, Floor T, Chambers B.Death and death rates due to extreme weather events[J]. Civil Society Report on Climate Change, 2007: 1900-2004
[21]	Engle N L.Adaptive capacity and its assessment[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21(2): 647-656
[22]	张君枝, 刘云帆, 马文林, 等. 基于fuzzy TOPSIS的城市水资源适应能力评估方法研究[J]. 环境与可持续发展, 2014, 39(6): 147-150
[23]	Sophocleous M.From safe yield to sustainable development of water resources: the Kansas experience[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 235(1-2): 27-43
[24]	Akamani K, Wilson P I.Toward the adaptive governance of transboundary water resources[J]. Conservation Letters, 2011, 4(6): 409-416
[25]	Adger W N, Arnell N W, Tompkins E L.Successful adaptation to climate change across scales[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(2): 77-86
[26]	Adger W N, Vincent K.Uncertainty in adaptive capacity[J]. Comptes Rendus Geosciences, 2005, 337(4): 399-410
[27]	IPCC. Climate change 2007: synthesis report [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007
[28]	夏军, 李璐, 严茂超, 等. 气候变化对密云水库水资源的影响及其适应性管理对策[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(6): 319-323
[29]	Wang G, Zhang J, Jin J, et al. Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies[J]. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2017, 22(1): 67-83
[30]	Levy M A, Young O R, Zürn M.The study of international regimes[J]. European Journal of International Relations, 1995, 1(3): 267-330
[31]	Young O R.The institutional dimensions of environmental change: fit, interplay, and scale[J]. International Environmental Agreements, 2003, 3(2): 191-194
[32]	Agrawal A, Perrin N.Climate adaptation, local institutions and rural livelihoods[J]. University of Michigan, 2009
[33]	Giordano M A.Sharing waters: Post-Rio international water management[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 2003, 27(2): 163-171
[34]	Wolf A T.A long-term view of water and security: international waters, national issues and regional tensions[J]. Nato Security Through Science, 2009: 3-19
[35]	Hamouda M A, El-Din M M N, Moursy F I. Vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in the Eastern Nile basin[J]. Water Resources Management, 2009, 23(13): 2697-2725
[36]	De Stefano L, Duncan J, Dinar S, et al. Mapping the resilience of international river basins to future climate change-induced water variability[J]. Water Sector Board Discussion Paper Series, 2010: 1-75
[37]	Milman A, Bunclark L, Conway D, et al. Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins[J]. Climatic Change, 2013, 121(4): 755-770
[38]	Tilleard S, Ford J.Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins[J]. Climatic Change, 2016, 137(3): 1-17
[39]	Feng D M.Transboundary water vulnerability and its drivers in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2009, 19(2): 189-199
[40]	姜海波, 冯斐, 周阳. 塔里木河流域水资源脆弱性演变趋势及适应性对策研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2014 (2): 81-84
[41]	夏军, 石卫, 雒新萍, 等. 气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识[J]. 水科学进展, 2015, 26(2): 279-286
[42]	李峰平, 章光新, 董李勤. 气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(4): 457-464
[43]	夏军, Thomas T, 任国玉, 等. 气候变化对中国水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(4): 215-219
[44]	张励, 卢光盛. 从应急补水看澜湄合作机制下的跨境水资源合作[J]. 国际展望, 2016 (5): 95-112