Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6): 606-613.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.027

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Impact of Future Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei Province

Tang Yang1, Liu Kequn1, Wei Fenghua2, Ren Yongjian1, Zhang Liwen1, Xiao Weiyu1   

  1. 1 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China;
    2 Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
  • Received:2017-02-16 Revised:2017-09-20 Online:2017-11-30 Published:2017-11-30


Based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and combined with topographic, vegetational, meteorological and other environmental factors, potential distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei province in base period (1986-2005) was simulated, and potential distribution risk zones of Oncomelania in Hubei province under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2021-2040, 2051-2070 and 2081-2100 were projected respectively. The results showed that, the projection with MaxEnt model had a higher simulation accuracy with its mean AUC of ROC value of 0.894±0.024, which was credible and acceptable for future Oncomelania potential distribution projection in Hubei province under the three RCPs. Oncomelania potential distribution illustrated an extension at low and middle risk by 4.5% and 1.6% respectively and reduction of risk-free by 9.3% compared with the base period. Oncomelania potential distribution zones at middle and high risk would move northward.

Key words: Oncomelania, climate change, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, potential distribution

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