Climate Change Research ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (6): 561-570.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.047

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Assessment of Impacts of Tianjin Pilot Emission Trading Schemes in China—A CGE-Analysis Using TermCO2 Model

Liu Yu1, Wen Danhui2, Wang Yi1, Sun Zhenqing2   

  1. 1 Institutes of Science and Development , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
    2 College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300222, China
  • Received:2016-03-09 Revised:2016-07-27 Online:2016-11-30 Published:2016-11-30
  • Contact: Yu Liu


In this paper, scenarios are set strictly according to institutional elements of Tianjin Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) pilot, in order to simulate its impacts on economy and environment of Tianjin, and analyze interactions between industries deeply. Results show that carbon emission decreases by 0.62% (1.03 million tons), with equilibrium carbon price of 14.2 yuan per ton. There is a slight fall of GDP by 0.04% (0.62 billion yuan), while GDP elasticity coefficient of carbon emissions is 0.07. Each ton of carbon causes 599 yuan GDP loss. Forty-one industries among 42 are affected and the average effect is -0.068%. Overall, emission reduction effect of Tianjin ETS pilot is obvious, and its negative economic impact is limited.

Key words: Tianjin, Emission Trading Schemes (ETS), CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, economic and environmental impact

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