气候变化研究进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (05): 255-259.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

对喜马拉雅山脉中段6个台站的气候变化分析

张核真1,边巴次仁1,唐小萍2,马鹏飞2,路红亚2   

  1. 1. 西藏自治区气候中心2. 西藏自治区气象局气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2008-12-19 修回日期:2009-02-17 出版日期:2009-09-30 发布日期:2009-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 张核真

Analysis of Climate Change over the Six Stations of Middle Himalayas During 1971-2007

  • Received:2008-12-19 Revised:2009-02-17 Online:2009-09-30 Published:2009-09-30

摘要: 利用喜马拉雅山脉中段南、北两侧6个气象站1971-2007年逐月气温、降水资料,分析了该地区气候变化趋势、异常及突变特征。结果表明:喜马拉雅山脉中段南、北两侧年、季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,冬半年升温幅度大于夏半年。年及夏半年平均气温均为随年代升高趋势,而冬半年气温在20世纪80年代较70年代略偏低,90年代后又逐渐升高。21世纪前7 a升温最为显著,较20世纪70年代升高0.6~1.1℃。1997年该地区南侧年平均气温发生突变,突变后增温趋势更加明显。20世纪90年代末以来,异常偏暖年份出现的几率明显增加,且南侧多于北侧。喜马拉雅山脉中段北侧年及冬夏半年降水均呈增多趋势。南侧年和夏半年降水呈减少趋势,冬半年为增多趋势。降水异常出现在20世纪80、90年代,21世纪后降水出现异常的概率明显减少。近40 a,北侧气候具有暖湿化趋势;南侧冬半年与之类似,但夏半年及全年呈暖干化趋势。

关键词: 喜马拉雅山, 气候变化, 气温, 降水

Abstract: By using the temperature and precipitation data from 6 meteorological stations in the middle Himalayas during 1971-2007, trends, anomalies and abrupt change of climate were analyzed. Remarkable increasing trends of annual and seasonal temperatures were detected in the region, and the rate of warming in winter half year (briefly winter hereafter) was greater than that in summer half year (briefly summer hereafter). Annual and summer temperatures showed an increasing trend on both the south and north sides of the middle Himalayas; winter temperature on the both sides decreased slightly from the 1970s to the 1980s, then gradually increased in the 1990s. For annual and seasonal temperatures, the most significant increasing trend was observed in 2001-2007, when the temperature increment ranged from 0.6 to 1.1℃relative to the 1970s. The abrupt change of annual temperature was observed in 1997 over the south side of the middle Himalayas; the warming trend was more dramatic since 1997. Since the end of the 1990s, the frequency of extreme warm years has obviously increased, especially on the south side. An increasing trend of annual and seasonal precipitation was detected on the north side of the middle Himalayans; an increasing trend was also found in winter on the south side, while a decreasing trend was observed in summer and annual precipitation. Large anomalies in precipitation mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, and its frequency has reduced since the 21st century. In 1971-2007, the annual, seasonal temperature and humidity on the north side increased synchronously, thus showing a warming and wetting trend; the same trend was also found in winter on the south side, while a warming and drying trend was found for summer or the whole year.

Key words: Himalayas, climate change, temperature, precipitation

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