气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (5): 324-330.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.05.005

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来气候变化科学研究的主要方向和挑战

孙颖1,2,秦大河3,4,周波涛1   

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081 
    2
    全球变化研究协同创新中心,北京 100875
    3 中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州 730000
    4 中国气象局,北京 100081

  • 收稿日期:2015-05-15 修回日期:2015-07-28 出版日期:2015-09-30 发布日期:2015-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 孙颖 E-mail:sunying@cma.gov.cn

Major Directions and Grand Challenges of Future Climate Change Science

Sun Ying1, 2, Qin Dahe3, 4, Zhou Botao1   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;  
    2 Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China;  
    3 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 
    4 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

  • Received:2015-05-15 Revised:2015-07-28 Online:2015-09-30 Published:2015-09-30
  • Contact: Ying sun E-mail:sunying@cma.gov.cn

摘要: 2014年9月,IPCC联合世界气候研究计划(WCRP),在瑞士伯尔尼大学召开了一次特别的研讨会,总结过去几年气候变化科学研究中所取得的经验教训。此次会议针对IPCC最新评估报告中的关键不确定性,梳理并总结了未来气候变化研究的主要科学方向和面临的主要挑战,讨论了如何与WCRP计划结合并解决这些问题,以期在未来更好地应对这些挑战。在此次会议上,与会专家提出,未来气候变化科学研究的重大挑战应包括如下8个主题。云、环流与气候敏感度;理解和预测极端天气气候事件;冰冻圈变化;区域气候信息;区域海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响;水资源可利用量;生物地球化学、气溶胶和大气化学;理解年代际变化:归因与预测。这些主题涵盖了WCRP计划的六大挑战和其他被认为具有挑战性的主题。本文将在此次会议报告的基础上,对相关内容进行介绍,以供当前的气候变化工作参考。

关键词: 气候变化研究, IPCC, WCRP, 重大挑战

Abstract: In September of 2014, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), working closely with Working Group I of the IPCC, organized a meeting on the topic of Lessons Learnt for Climate Change Research with respect to the recently published IPCC AR5 on the campus of the University of Bern. This workshop was aimed at informal exchanges and brain-storming between scientists involved in climate change research coordination and those who served as authors on the IPCC AR5. Its main purpose was to take stock of key scientific issues identified through the IPCC assessment in WCRP’s research plans. During three days of intense presentations and discussions, the participants evaluated climate science, WCRP directions and plans, and future needs for research and assessments. Eight themes were presented to be included as the grand challenges of future climate change science, including clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; changes in cryosphere; regional climate information; regional sea level rise and coastal impacts; water availability; biogeochemical, aerosols, atmospheric chemistry aspects; decadal timescale quantification: attribution and prediction. These themes cover the six grand challenges of WCRP and other challenging themes in climate science. This paper presents a brief introduction about this meeting in terms of the meeting report, so as to provide some references and information for the future climate change research.

Key words: climate change research, IPCC, WCRP, grand challenge

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