气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (2): 103-109.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.02.004

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖背景下青藏高原山地灾害及其风险分析

崔 鹏1,陈 容1, 3,向灵芝2,苏凤环1   

  1. 1 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041;
    2 重庆交通大学岩土工程研究所,重庆 400074;
    3 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
     
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-05 修回日期:2014-01-09 出版日期:2014-03-30 发布日期:2014-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 崔鹏 E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn

Risk Analysis of Mountain Hazards in Tibetan Plateau Under Global Warming

Cui Peng1, Chen Rong1, 3, Xiang Lingzhi2, Su Fenghuan1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 
    2 Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China; 
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
     
  • Received:2013-09-05 Revised:2014-01-09 Online:2014-03-30 Published:2014-03-30
  • Contact: peng cui E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn

摘要: 基于青藏高原1930—2010年山地灾害实例,分析了气候变暖对青藏高原山地灾害的影响。结果表明:在气候变暖背景下,冰湖溃决灾害增多,冰川泥石流趋于活跃,特大灾害出现频繁,灾害链生特征明显,表现出时间和空间上的延拓性,巨灾发生概率增大;在藏东南地区表现出雨热同期的气候特征,构成了利于冰川类泥石流形成的条件;波密县城位于两条泥石流危险区的建筑物占地面积由1988年0.014 km2扩展到2012年1.004 km2,人口与经济密集区与灾害高风险区重叠,加之气候变化导致的灾害危险性增加,青藏高原灾害风险显著增大。上述结果提供了气候变化对青藏高原山地灾害影响的证据,初步阐述了其影响特征,有助于山地减灾和进一步认识气候变化对山地灾害的影响机理。

关键词: 气候变化, 山地灾害, 灾害风险, 冰湖溃决, 青藏高原

Abstract: Based on the mountain hazards events in the Tibetan Plateau during the period of 1930-2010, the impacts of global warming on mountain hazards in alpine area were analyzed. Under the circumstance of global warming, glacial lake outburst disaster and glacial debris tended to be more active. Disaster chain was apparent and showed a tendency of spatial and temporal extension, associated with the increasing occurrences of catastrophe. It showed a climatic characteristics of rain and heat occurring in the same period, which constituted a favorable combination for the formation of glacial debris in the southeast region of Tibet. Building distribution in debris-flow risky areas of Sangdeng Gully and Ganong Gully with an area of 0.014 km2 in 1988 extended to 1.004 km2 in 2012, economic activity overlapped with the high risk areas coupled with the increasing disaster risk due to climate change, and thus disaster risk in mountain regions significantly increased. The above results provide evidence about the impact of climate change on mountain hazards in Tibetan Plateau and preliminarily describe characteristics of the impact, which will help to reduce mountain hazards and further understand the corresponding impact mechanism.

Key words: climate change, mountain hazards, disaster risk, glacial lake outburst, Tibetan Plateau

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