气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (5): 353-362.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.05.009

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国电力行业1990—2050年温室气体排放研究

苏燊燊1,2,赵锦洋1,胡建信2   

  1. 1电力规划设计总院,北京 100120
    2北京大学环境科学与工程学院区域环境质量协同创新中心,北京 100871

  • 收稿日期:2015-06-29 修回日期:2015-08-11 出版日期:2015-09-30 发布日期:2015-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 苏燊燊 E-mail:sssu@cpecc.net
  • 基金资助:

    电力规划总院博士后工作站科研项目

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Power Sector in China from 1990 to 2050

Su Shenshen1, 2, Zhao Jinyang1, Hu Jianxin2   

  1. 1 Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China; 
    2 Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

  • Received:2015-06-29 Revised:2015-08-11 Online:2015-09-30 Published:2015-09-30

摘要: 采用《国家温室气体清单指南》推荐方法,估算了1990—2014年中国各省份电力行业的温室气体排放水平。研究时期内,中国电力行业排放增长6.2倍,达到38.0(95%信度区间为31.3~46.0)亿t CO2当量(CO2-eq),而各省排放水平及其变化趋势呈现出显著的差异,排放重心向西部省份转移,内蒙古成为全国电力行业排放最大的省份。同时基于未来电源结构的发展方案,预测了2015—2050年不同电力需求情景下电力行业温室气体排放的变化趋势和达到排放峰值情况。电力需求高增速情景下2034年达到排放峰值59.5(49.3~71.8)亿t CO2-eq,而低增速情景可以提前至2031年达到排放峰值,且峰值水平下降7.7(6.3~9.3)亿t CO2-eq。

关键词: 电力行业, 温室气体, 空间分布, 情景分析, 排放峰值

Abstract: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted to estimate provincial greenhouse gas emissions from power sector in China in 1990-2014. The national emissions in 2014 increased by more than 6 times since 1990, reaching 3.80 (3.13-4.60, 95% confidence interval) billion t CO2-eq. The changing patterns of provincial emissions were also examined in this study. Great disparity existed in the provincial emissions and the Inner Mongolia became the biggest emitter since 2011, promoting the emission center transferred from the East to West China. Based on development plans of power structure in the future, the greenhouse gas emissions from power sector in 2015-2050 were projected under different power demand scenarios. Under a high power demand scenario, projected emissions will peak in 2034 with 5.95 (4.93-7.18) billion t CO2-eq. While under a low power demand scenario, the projected emissions will peak in 2031 with 0.77 (0.63-0.93) billion t CO2-eq lower than those of high demand scenario.

Key words: power industry, greenhouse gas, spatial distribution, scenario analysis, peak emissions

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