气候变化研究进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (6): 414-420.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.06.004

• 对策论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

2℃温升目标下排放空间及路径的不确定性分析

滕 飞1,何建坤1,高 云2,董文杰3   

  1. 1 清华大学能源环境经济研究所
    2中国气象局
    3 北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-17 修回日期:2013-07-24 出版日期:2013-11-30 发布日期:2013-11-30
  • 通讯作者: 滕飞 E-mail:tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    碳排放权分配方案的比较研究与博弈分析:公平与效率视角;基于CMIP5多模式模拟试验的气候变化集合预估和归因分析研究

Uncertainty Analysis on Cumulative Emission and Emission Trajectory Under the 2℃ Target

Teng Fei1, He Jiankun1, Gao Yun2, Dong Wenjie3   

  1. 1 Low Carbon Energy Lab, Institutute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University
    2 China Meteorological Administration
    3 College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University
  • Received:2013-05-17 Revised:2013-07-24 Online:2013-11-30 Published:2013-11-30
  • Contact: Fei teng E-mail:tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn

摘要: 国际社会已就2℃温升目标达成政治共识。将温升目标向累积排放及各国减排目标转换的过程需要基于一致的科学认知。但由于目前地球系统模式、减排路径及减排方案的研究仍然存在不确定性,缺乏建立政治共识所需的科学基础。通过谈判形成一个自上而下的国际气候制度的决策基础尚不具备。目前最有效和务实的方案仍是各国自下而上加大减排力度,并不断进行评估,促进各国持续加强减排力度,最终公平地承担减排义务。

关键词: 气候变化, 不确定性, 排放空间, 气候谈判

Abstract: The 2℃ target has become a political consensus among global community. The translation from the temperature rise target to international and national carbon budget should be built upon consistent scientific findings. The current studies on Earth system models, mitigation trajectories and allocation schemes still lack necessary consistency to reach political consensus. The decision-making basis for a top-down climate regime is not ready. The most practical way is to further enhance bottom-up national mitigation pledges through ratcheting assessment, with a view to share the mitigation burden in an equitable manner.

Key words: climate change, uncertainty, emission space, climate negotiation

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