关键词: 旱涝格局, 标准化降水指数（SPI）, ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式, 排放情景

Abstract: This study investigated future spatial distribution of dryness/wetness in China during the first 50 years of 21st century according to standardized precipitation index (SPI) which was calculated from the monthly precipitation data projected by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model under the SRES-A2 (high emission), SRES-A1B (mediate emission) and SRES-B1 (low emission) scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that the projected dryness/wetness pattern in the future 50 years under the SRES-A2 scenario is similar to the observed one in 1961-2000, i.e. there is a SW-NE oriented drought belt from Southwest China to Northeast China; but the projected patterns under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios are different, especially under the SRES-B1 scenario, a north-wetness-south-dryness pattern was projected. The area of drought was projected to weakly increase under the SRES-A2 scenario but to decline under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios. Spatial distributions of the frequency of droughts were also projected to be different from each other.

Key words: dryness/wetness pattern, standardized precipitation index (SPI), ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model, emission scenario, China