关键词: CCLM模式, 日降水格局, 峰度, 偏度

Abstract: Based on the observed daily precipitation records from 540 stations and the 3839 gridded data from a high-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) in 1961-2010, the simulation ability of the CCLM on the daily precipitation in China was examined, and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern was revealed as well. By applying the probability method and extreme value theory to the projected data of daily precipitation under the A1B scenario in 2011-2050 by the CCLM, possible trends of daily precipitation series and its extremes were analyzed. Results show that except the western of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China, distributive patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other, and their spatial correlation coefficients are up to 0.75 or more. The CCLM model can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China. It was projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region, the mid-eastern part of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, the kurtosis and skewness will rise significantly, and precipitation extremes will also increase simultaneously in 2011-2050. The increases in projected maximum daily rainfall and largest non-precipitation days in the flood season in the above mentioned regions, also prove the intensified trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years afar 2010.

Key words: CCLM model, daily precipitation pattern, kurtosis, skewness