关键词: 气温, 降水, 气候变化, 气候预估

Abstract: Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data during 1961-2007 and projection during 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, changing tendencies of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin were analyzed. The results show that the annual average air temperature increased by 1.8℃ during the past 47 years, with a maximum increase in winter and a minimum increase in summer. Annual temperature would rise by 1.9℃ under the SRES-A1B scenario in the next 50 years (2011-2060); at the same time, inter-annual variability would enhance. Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in autumn and most weakly in winter under the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios; however, under the SRES-A1B scenario, the opposite is true. In the past 47 years, except that autumn precipitation decreased, spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation increased. Precipitation would overally increase about 230 mm in 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under the SRES-A1B scenario. However, the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of annual and winter precipitation would enhance, but that of autumn precipitation would weaken.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, climate change, climate projection, Pearl River basin