碳排放许可的强度分配标准与中国区域经济协调发展——基于30省区CGE模型的分析

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (1): 60-67.

碳排放许可的强度分配标准与中国区域经济协调发展——基于30省区CGE模型的分析

袁永娜¹,石敏俊¹,李娜²,周晟吕¹,²

1. 中国科学院研究生院
2.

收稿日期:2011-05-27 修回日期:2011-10-26 出版日期:2012-01-30 发布日期:2012-01-30
通讯作者: 石敏俊 E-mail:mjshi1964@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金委管理学部应急研究项目“应对气候变化的节能减排政策研究”;国家自然科学基金委创新群体研究项目“数据挖掘与智能知识管理：理论与应用研究”

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emission Permits and China Regional Development—Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable Equilibrium Model Analysis

Received:2011-05-27 Revised:2011-10-26 Online:2012-01-30 Published:2012-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于30省区CGE模型，模拟分析了碳排放许可的强度分配标准对我国区域协调发展的影响。结果表明：按行业属性设定强度分配标准会加剧区域经济发展不平衡状况；按区域经济发展水平设定强度分配标准，对区域协调发展的影响较小，但会对高排放行业造成较大的冲击。中央政府基于强度分配标准，参考区域经济发展水平，将碳排放许可分配到各个省份，然后各个省份再参考行业特点将碳排放许可分配给机制覆盖行业的实体或排放源，这样的两阶段分配结构是较为现实的、具有可操作性的政策选择。

关键词: 碳排放许可, 强度分配标准, 区域平衡发展, 30省区可计算一般均衡模型（CGE模型）, carbon emission permit, intensity allocation criteria, regional balance development, 30-province/autonomous computable equilibrium model

Abstract: The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emission permits and its influence on China誷 regional development were analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region CGE model. Simulation results show that: industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account, deepens the unbalanced development of regional economy; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial attributes into account, exerts little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon-emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emission permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emission permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial attributes, is a feasible and operable choice.

袁永娜石敏俊李娜周晟吕. 碳排放许可的强度分配标准与中国区域经济协调发展——基于30省区CGE模型的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(1): 60-67.