气候变化研究进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (4): 252-257.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.04.003

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

树轮记录的川西金川1713—2010年6月平均气温变化

肖丁木1,4,秦宁生1,2,3,李金建3,李媛媛3   

  1. 1 成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,成都 610225;
    2 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都 610072;
    3 四川省农业气象中心,成都 610072;
    4 四川省气象台,成都 610072
  • 收稿日期:2012-11-16 修回日期:2013-04-01 出版日期:2013-07-30 发布日期:2013-08-07
  • 通讯作者: 秦宁生 E-mail:qinns0515@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目;公益性气象行业科研专项;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项

Variations of June Air Temperature Derived from Tree-Ring Records in 1713-2010 in Jinchuan, West Sichuan Plateau, China

Xiao Dingmu1, 4, Qin Ningsheng1, 2, 3, Li Jinjian3, Li Yuanyuan3   

  1. 1 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China; 
    2 Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China; 
    3 Agrometeorological Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China; 
    4 Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Office, Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2012-11-16 Revised:2013-04-01 Online:2013-07-30 Published:2013-08-07

摘要: 利用采自川西高原金川情人海沟的云杉树轮样本,分析了树轮宽度与气候要素的关系。结果表明:树轮宽度指数与金川气象站6月平均气温具有显著的正相关关系。利用标准化树轮宽度指数重建了该区域1713—2010年6月平均气温序列,交叉检验及各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的。近298年来川西金川6月平均气温为18.2℃,经历了3个暖期和4个冷期。暖期时段为1825—1839、1854—1892和1951—1961年;冷期时段为1792—1804、1842—1853、1864—1893和1911—1924年。周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在2~3、7~8、20~30、32~64和70~130 a的变化周期。

关键词: 川西高原, 树轮宽度, 气候重建, 平均气温

Abstract: Tree-ring width of Picea schrenkiana sampled at Jinchuan and its response to climate change were analyzed. Correlation analysis indicates that the tree-ring chronology and the June mean air temperature at Jinchuan station in the West Sichuan Plateau was significantly correlated. The June mean air temperature series of 1713-2010 at Jinchuan was well reconstructed. Its reliability was substantiated by the leave-one-out method. According to the reconstructed temperature series, the June mean air temperature over the period was 18.2℃. The reconstructed series contained three warm periods: 1825-1839, 1854-1892 and 1951-1961, as well as four cold periods: 1792-1804, 1842-1853, 1864-1893 and 1911-1924. Power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis show that the series had variation periods of 2-3, 7-8, 20-30, 32-64 and 70-130 years.

Key words: West Sichuan Plateau, tree-ring width, climatic reconstruction, mean air temperature

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