气候变化研究进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (1): 18-22.

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

过去0.8 Ma期间的地表温度数值模拟研究

张悦1,石广玉2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所;中国科学院研究生院
    2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-06 修回日期:2010-05-10 出版日期:2011-01-30 发布日期:2011-01-31
  • 通讯作者: 张悦 E-mail:yz@itpcas.ac.cn

Simulation of Surface Temperature over the Past 0.8 Ma

Zhang Yue,   

  • Received:2010-05-06 Revised:2010-05-10 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-31
  • Contact: Zhang Yue E-mail:yz@itpcas.ac.cn

摘要: 使用一个改进的二维能量平衡模式模拟了过去0.8 Ma冰期-间冰期旋回期间北半球各纬度带的地表温度,并以65°N的地表温度为代表与南极冰芯记录进行了比较。通过敏感性试验,分析了日射量、温室气体、沙尘气溶胶强迫和水汽反馈的辐射-气候效应。结果显示,日射量变化不足以解释冰期-间冰期旋回期间北半球的地表温度变化,大气温室气体(二氧化碳和甲烷)、沙尘气溶胶强迫和水汽反馈等对更新世晚期以来的气候变化影响较大。加入上述强迫因子和反馈机制后,模拟的65°N地表温度与南极温度的相关系数由单纯考虑日射量的0.24增加为0.60;气候系统对上述强迫因子以及反馈机制的响应呈现出非线性特征。

关键词: 冰期-间冰期旋回, 能量平衡模式, 辐射强迫, 物理反馈, glacial-interglacial cycle, energy balance mode, radiative forcing, physical feedback

Abstract: The surface temperature in Northern Hemisphere over the past 0.8 Ma was simulated using an improved 2-D energy balance model, and the simulated 65°N surface temperature was compared with the Antarctic ice core record. The climatic effects of integrated insolation, greenhouse gases and dusts, and feedback process of water vapor were investigated via five sensitivity experiments, respectively. The results suggest that the insolation variability given by the Milankovitch theory can’t fully explain the surface temperature changes of the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 0.8 Ma. The influences of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and dust, and water vapor on the climate changes since late Pleistocene were very significant. After considering these factors, the correlation coefficient between simulated 65°N surface temperatures and Antarctic temperatures increased from 0.24 in the first test to 0.60 in the fifth one. Finally, the climate system in the model responded to the above forcings and feedbacks nonlinearly.

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