气候变化研究进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (06): 436-442.

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战

陈敏鹏1,林而达2   

  1. 1. 中国农业科学研究院农业环境与可持续发展研究所
    2. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-12 修回日期:2010-03-22 出版日期:2010-11-30 发布日期:2010-12-10
  • 通讯作者: 林而达 E-mail:lined@ns.ami.ac.cn;linerda@hotmail.com

Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios and Challenges to China

  • Received:2010-01-12 Revised:2010-03-22 Online:2010-11-30 Published:2010-12-10
  • Contact: Lin Erda E-mail:lined@ns.ami.ac.cn;linerda@hotmail.com

摘要: 介绍了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)为第五次评估报告开发的新情景——代表性浓度路径(RCPs),分析了RCPs情景的内在优势,并描述了4类代表性RCPs(RCP8.5、RCP6、RCP4.5和RCP3-PD)的特征。利用IPCC最新发布的RCPs数据,分析了高端、中端稳定和低端浓度路径下,全球温室气体的排放空间、区域分担和减排成本,并着重探讨了低端路径与全球温度升幅限制在2℃以下目标之间的关系及其给中国带来的主要挑战和应对途径。

关键词: 温室气体, 减排, 代表性浓度路径, 情景, greenhouse gas (GHG), mitigation, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), scenario

Abstract: This paper overviews the new set of integrated scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the fifth assessment process, analyzes the advantages of new approaches to scenarios development, and depicts the characteristics of the identified four RCPs (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP3-PD). By using the RCPs database updated by IPCC, the paper analyzes the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, regional emissions and emission abatement costs under the high, intermediate-range and low RCP scenarios. More importantly, the paper investigates the relationship between low RCP and keeping the global temperature rise below 2℃, identifies the challenges brought to China, and presents China’s countermeasures for addressing the challenges.

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