关键词: 华中地区, 气候变化, 预估, 气温

Abstract: Using the monthly mean temperature, precipitation at a grid resolution of 0.5°×0.5° in Central China during 1961-1990 and 2001-2030 simulated by regional climate model of National Climate Center under SRES A2, and the actual monthly mean temperature, precipitation during 1961-1990 in all basic and standard stations in the area, the climate change tendency was estimated and analyzed for the first 30 years of the 21st century. The results show that, relative to the period 1961-1990, annual mean temperature during 2001-2030 in Central China generally has a warming tendency of 0.3℃, and it will increase more quickly in the east than in the west of the area. The annual precipitation in Central China mostly presents a decreasing tendency, but an increasing tendency in the south part. The mean temperature will increase by 0.1-1.3℃ and 0.8-2.2℃ in spring and summer, respectively, decrease in the north and increase in the south in autumn, and decrease by 0.0-1.0℃ in winter. In most areas of Central China, precipitation will decease in spring, summer and winter, especially in winter, and increase in autumn.

Key words: Central China, climate change, projection, temperature, precipitation