气候变化研究进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (02): 71-078.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析

唐国利1,丁一汇2,王绍武3,任国玉2,刘洪滨4,张莉5   

  1. 1. 国家气候中心气候变化室2. 中国气象局国家气候中心3. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系4. 中国气象局 国家气候中心 气候研究开放实验室5. 国家气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2008-09-27 修回日期:2008-11-25 出版日期:2009-03-30 发布日期:2009-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 唐国利

Comparative Analysis of the Time Series of Surface Air Temperature over China for the Last 100 Years

Ding Yihui,Wang Shaowu1,Liu Hongbin3   

  1. 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University2. National Climate Center3. National Climate Center
  • Received:2008-09-27 Revised:2008-11-25 Online:2009-03-30 Published:2009-03-30

摘要: 温度变化是全球变化研究中非常重要的基础性问题,在中国近百年温度变化方面,十几年来已取得了明显进展,这首先表现在建立了若干条全国平均气温序列,而几条主要序列间的相关系数在0.73~0.97之间。同时,这些进展也表现在基础资料质量提高、空间覆盖面扩大、序列均一性改善以及结果可靠性提高等方面。对多序列进行综合分析得到的新结果显示,1906-2005年中国的年平均气温上升了(0.78±0.27)℃,2007年是我国近百年来最暖的一年;代表性分析显示,现有的几条中国温度序列中除覆盖完整的序列外,其他序列在1920或1930年代以前可能主要反映中国东部变化情况,但在此之后则能较好地代表全国大部分地区的气候变化特征。

关键词: 近百年, 气候变化, 气温序列, 增温速率估计

Abstract: Temperature change is of great importance in global change science. Remarkable progress has been made in studies of the temperature change in China during the recent 100 years or more. Some time series provide surface air temperatures averaged over China. Correlations between the series range from 0.73 to 0.97. The achievements mainly include the following: improving the quality, increasing the coverage of data, raising the homogeneity of time series and enlarging the reliability of the results etc. Analysis shows that the warming rate of annual mean temperature in China during 1906-2005 is (0.78±0.27)℃; 2007 is probably the warmest year. However, most of the series except those with complete coverage mainly reflect the temperature change over eastern China before the 1920s or 1930s, so caution must be taken in examination of temperature change.

Key words: recent 100 years, climate change, air temperature series, estimation of warming rate, global warming

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