关键词: 气候变化影响, 密云水库, 水资源, 适应性管理

Abstract: A screening framework for assessing impacts of climate change on water resource of Miyun reservoir is briefly introduced. It is a systematic step-by-step scheme for assessing the impact of climate change and its adaptation responses. The assessment shows that water inflow to Miyun reservoir has been decreasing in recent years due to rainfall change and human activities. Climate change is projected to increase the reservoir's inflow in the long term (2050), but the inflow may continue to decline in the medium term (2025) under the SRES A2 scenario, necessitating adaptation measures to assure water supply to Beijing. Suggested comprehensive measures for adaptation management include: 1) converting paddy fields in the upper reaches to rain-fed farming land, with compensation paid to farmers; 2) constructing a water diversion channel of 160 km from the Luanhe River to the Chaohe River, which feeds Miyun reservoir; 3) constructing sewage treatment plants to increase effluent re-use.

Key words: impacts of climate change, Miyun reservoir, water resource, adaptation management