气候变化研究进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 03 ›› Issue (04): 202-207.

• 极端事件专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

21世纪中国极端降水事件预估

江志红 丁裕国 陈威霖   

  1. 南京信息工程大学
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-04 修回日期:2007-04-03 出版日期:2007-07-30 发布日期:2007-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 江志红

Projection of Precipitation Extremes for the 21st Century over China

  

  • Received:2007-01-04 Revised:2007-04-03 Online:2007-07-30 Published:2007-07-30

摘要: 摘 要:全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的变化一直受到广泛关注,本文从观测、理论及模拟预估等方面对近十多年来国内外极端降水气候事件的研究作一综述,并给出IPCC第四次评估报告对我国21世纪极端降水指数变化的预估结果。

关键词: 极端降水事件, 模式模拟, 极值分析, 预估

Abstract: Abstract: Projections of change in precipitation extremes under global warming have drawn much attention abroad. In this paper, recent progresses in studies on precipitation extremes at home and abroad are summarized through the various aspects of observation, theory, simulations and projections. The projected changes in precipitation extremes derived from the five GCMs contributing to the IPCC AR4 over China in the 21st century are also discussed.

Key words: precipitation extremes, model simulations, extreme value distribution, projections

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