气候变化研究进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (05): 319-324.

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

环渤海地区1961-2007年极端强降水时空变化特征

郭军,李明财,段丽瑶   

  1. 天津市气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2009-11-25 修回日期:2010-01-02 出版日期:2010-09-30 发布日期:2010-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 郭军

Spatio-temporal Variations of Extremely Heavy Precipitation in the Circum-Bohai Sea Region During 1961-2007

GUO Jun   

  • Received:2009-11-25 Revised:2010-01-02 Online:2010-09-30 Published:2010-09-30
  • Contact: GUO Jun

摘要: 20世纪90年代以来,环渤海地区降水总量持续偏少,极端强降水和干旱缺水问题十分突出。利用环渤海地区60个台站1961-2007年逐日降水资料,应用百分位方法确定极端强降水阈值,分析了极端强降水量、降水强度和频率的空间分布及时间变化趋势。结果表明:环渤海地区极端降水强度大、频率高的地区与年降水量高值区相一致,说明极端降水量的多少影响年降水量;极端降水日数呈减少趋势,特别是京津冀中部地区减少显著;极端降水多发生在7月中旬到8月中旬,最高频次在7月下旬,近10年极端降水季节分配比较分散,很少出现每候25站次以上的极端强降水;间隔30 d以上的极端强降水近年来增加明显。

关键词: 极端强降水, 频数, 强度, 环渤海地区

Abstract: Yearly total precipitation has been continuously decreasing since the 1990s, accompanying with an acute problem of extremely heavy precipitation and drought. The daily precipitation data at 60 weather stations in the circum-Bohai Sea region from 1961 to 2007 were used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal changes of the rainfall, intensity and frequency of extremely heavy precipitation, wherein the threshold of extremely heavy precipitation was determined by the percentile method. The results show that the extremely heavy precipitation of high intensity and frequency occurred where the corresponding annual rainfall was high, indicating that the rainfall of extremely heavy precipitation dominated the annual rainfall. Extremely heavy precipitation days showed a declining trend, especially in the central part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. Extremely heavy precipitation frequently occurred from middle July to middle August, with the top frequency in late July. Over the last 10 years the seasonal distribution of extreme precipitation was temporally relatively disperse and the extremely heavy precipitation with more than 25 station days occurred in a pentad was scarce. In contrast, extremely heavy precipitation with an interval of more than 30 d increased significantly in recent years.

Key words: extreme heavy precipitation, frequency, intensity, circum-Bohai sea region

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