关键词: 气候变化预估, 多模式集合, 不确定性

Abstract: Climate change over China in the middle 21st century is investigated based on the multi-model datasets of 20C3M and the SRES A1B scenario projection provided by CMIP3. The analysis shows that the precipitation will increase in most parts of China; the range of rainfall change is between -0.1 and 1.1 mm/d in summer, and between -0.2 and 0.2 mm/d in winter. Unfortunately, our analysis has revealed a large spread among the 23 models in future precipitation change projection. Uncertainties in the surface air temperature (TAS) change projection are far less than those in precipitation. The projected change range of TAS, in both summer and winter, is from 1.2 to 2.8℃, generally increasing with latitude. Projected change of East Asian monsoon under the SRES A1B scenario exhibits a strengthened trend in summer but a slightly weakened trend in winter; and the withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon rain-belt from its north-most position is about one month later than that in 20C3M.

Key words: climate change projection, multi-model ensemble, uncertainty