关键词: 气候变化, 区域气候模式, 降水, 极端事件

Abstract: Based on the multi-decadal climate change simulations from the RegCM3 model with a resolution of 20 km, changes in precipitation events of different intensities in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario were analyzed. The events were classified to RR1 (1-10 mm/d), RR10 (10-20 mm/d) and RR20 (≥20 mm/d) according to the daily rainfall. Verification of the model performances in simulating present (1961-1990) distribution of the rainy days was firstly carried out. The results show an overestimation of RR1 (light rain days) and a general underestimation of RR20 (heavy rain days) in southern China by the model as compared to the observations. Under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario in the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the projection shows different changes in the RR1, RR10 and RR20 events over different areas, with a general increase in heavy rain events over most of China. The slight increase in annual mean rainfall in China is basically contributed by the increase in heavy rain events.

Key words: climate change, regional climate model, precipitation, extreme events