气候变化研究进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 03 ›› Issue (03): 162-166.

• 极端事件专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国地区极端事件预估研究

高学杰   

  1. 中国气象局 国家气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2007-02-06 修回日期:2007-03-15 出版日期:2007-05-30 发布日期:2007-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 高学杰

Researches in Projection of Extreme Events in China

  • Received:2007-02-06 Revised:2007-03-15 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

摘要: 简要介绍了极端气候事件预估的基本方法,概述了东亚和中国地区关于气候和极端气候事件预估研究的进展。针对极端事件变化预估研究中的重要问题,如高分辨率、长时间尺度的区域气候变化模拟和预估,高时空分辨率的网格化观测资料,除温室效应外的土地利用和气溶胶的作用,使用合理方法进行多模式结果的集合,以及统计降尺度方法的应用等,进行了讨论。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候模式, 极端事件, 预估

Abstract: In this paper, we review basic methods for projecting possible future changes in extreme events, with an emphasis on the analysis of output from high resolution climate models. Current and past research on extreme events in East Asia and China are discussed and the projections for China are summarized, including existing problems in these projections. It is pointed out that further studies in the following areas are needed in order to better project future extreme events over China: higher spatial and temporal resolution gridded observational data, extended high resolution regional climate model simulations, multi-model ensembles, and the application of statistical downscaling. In addition, the effects of land use and atmospheric aerosols must be considered in model simulations.

Key words: climate change, climate model, extreme events, projection, China region

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