关键词: 气候变化, 气候平均值, 气候变率, 漂移, 预估, 北京

Abstract: A new method for revising simulated climate data, which can remove both shifts of climate mean and variability, was developed in this work. The method can adjust the simulated value to the observed one. An attempt of applying the simulations under the B2 scenario in the IPCC data bank was made, which took the future 100 years projection of Beijing as a case, and the utility of the revision method was proved. By analyzing feature of Beijing's climate change in the future, it is shown that the temperature would still rise in the 21st century, its change rate would be about 0.31℃/10 a, the non-symmetrical characteristics of minimum- maximum temperature would continue. The precipitation has a weak decrease trend with the rate of 1.03 mm /10 a.

Key words: climate change, climatic mean value, climatic variability, shift, data revision, projection, Beijing