“双碳”目标下ETS与航空公司绿色全要素生产率

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.182

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳排放权交易机制（ETS）已经成为减少温室气体排放的重要市场手段和实现“双碳”目标的有效政策工具。以航空公司为研究对象，以2013—2022年为时间窗口，运用双重差分模型（DID）检验我国试点ETS政策对航空公司绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响。研究发现，即使在免费配额为主导的宽松规制下，ETS依然在遏制航空碳排放、提升GTFP方面效果显著，尤其对低成本航空、民营航空、双重碳市场规制的公司。对航空公司减排而言，严格的基准制配额分配方式比宽松的祖父制有更好的倒逼效应。ETS主要通过促进环保投资和精细化管理提升航空公司GTFP。研究结论为科学评估碳交易试点的政策效应、提升民航全要素生产率、促进行业的绿色发展提供了学术参照和“定量解”。

关键词: 碳排放权交易机制（ETS）, 航空公司, 绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）, 双重差分模型（DID）

Abstract:

Carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) has become an important market means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and an effective policy tool to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. Using airlines as the research object and 2013-2022 as the time window, the difference in differences (DID) model was used to test the impact of China’s pilot ETS policy on the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of airlines. Research has found that even under loose regulations dominated by free quotas, ETS still has a significant effect in curbing aviation carbon emissions and increasing GTFP, especially for low-cost carrier, private aviation, and dual carbon market regulations. For airlines to reduce emissions, a strict benchmark quota allocation method has a better forcing effect than a relaxed grandfather system. ETS mainly enhances airline GTFP by promoting environmental investment and refined management. The research conclusions provide academic reference and quantitative solutions for scientifically evaluating the policy effects of carbon trading pilot projects, improving the total factor productivity of civil aviation, and promoting green development of the industry.

Key words: Carbon emission trading scheme (ETS), Airline company, Green total factor productivity (GTFP), Difference in differences (DID) model

田利军, 秦文, 黎杰. “双碳”目标下ETS与航空公司绿色全要素生产率[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 320-333.

TIAN Li-Jun, Qin Wen, LI Jie. Research on the impact of carbon emissions trading scheme on airlines’ green total factor productivity[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 320-333.

图/表 13

图1 碳排放权交易机制（ETS）提升绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的作用机制

Fig. 1 Mechanisms for the role of carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) in enhancing green total factor productivity (GTFP)

表1 航空公司绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）指标及其说明

Table 1 Airline green total factor productivity (GTFP) indicators and its descriptions

表2 变量说明

Table 2 Variable description table

表3 样本选择与分布

Table 3 Sample selection and distribution

表4 变量描述性统计

Table 4 Descriptive statistics of variables

图2 样本GTFP动态分布

Fig. 2 Dynamic distribution of GTFP in the sample

图3 样本GTFP分解因子的动态分布注：Geffch代表综合技术效率;Gtechch代表技术进步;GPech代表纯技术效率;GSech代表规模效率。

Fig. 3 Dynamic distributions of decomposition factors for sample GTFP

表5 DID回归结果

Table 5 DID regression results

表6 ETS与GTFP分解因子回归结果

Table 6 DID regression results between ETS and decomposition factors of GTFP

表7 平行趋势检验

Table 7 Parallel trend test

图4 ETS对航空公司GTFP影响的动态效应

Fig. 4 Dynamic effects of ETS on the impact of airlines’ GTFP

表8 反事实检验

Table 8 Counterfactual tests

表9 ETS对航空公司GTFP影响的异质性分析

Table 9 Heterogeneity analysis of the impact of ETS on airlines’ GTFP

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